Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b65b26a73de0e942a9dd2da4924d2cf52b524761403148c7ff8b2b7f5770c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 76c | 257.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 25c | 244.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 68c | 221.43$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 211.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 49c | 184.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 181.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 178.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 56c | 169.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 65c | 161.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 75c | 161.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 63c | 124.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 124.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 115.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x29f2…5ac2backed No | 45c | 100.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 47c | 98.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 70c | 95.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 21c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 89.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 54c | 88.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 84.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 43c | 81.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 62c | 81.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 42c | 67.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 63c | 65.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 37c | 63.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 63.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 25c | 56.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 54c | 53.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 69c | 49.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 45.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 65c | 44.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 26c | 41.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 35c | 36.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 67c | 36.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 35.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 41c | 33.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 32c | 32.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 32.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 72c | 31.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked Yes | 50c | 28.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 27.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 66c | 27.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 25.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 69c | 24.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 56c | 22.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 66c | 18.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…7a33backed No | 79c | 14.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.