MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da641a2cfac8e4a68b995e8e28bea9505878af1b3f180fb1224a8ffa6425641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Orioles, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Rays | 55c | 6,031$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,731.25 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…a64bbacked Orioles | 47c | 3,066$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Orioles | 19c | 2,487$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.44 | 384 | 44%169 W · 215 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles | 15c | 2,020$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles | 45c | 1,807$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.31 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1f64backed Rays | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4356…181dbacked Orioles | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…9a99backed Orioles | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691d…2086backed Rays | 53c | 1,291$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Orioles | 6c | 1,270$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…570cbacked Orioles | 6c | 1,231$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 439 | 46%202 W · 237 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Orioles | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Rays | 54c | 743.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Orioles | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Orioles | 47c | 679.09$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.17 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles | 17c | 653.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Orioles | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Orioles | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 53c | 392.35$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rays | 52c | 303.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Rays | 67c | 297.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Orioles | 48c | 209.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Rays | 53c | 209$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Orioles | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Orioles | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Orioles | 46c | 199.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles | 47c | 191$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rays | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rays | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Rays | 52c | 162.21$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Orioles | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Orioles | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,289 | 47.2%609 W · 680 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Orioles | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…ce68backed Orioles | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles | 18c | 87.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491e…440bbacked Orioles | 15c | 83.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x941d…4dc1backed Rays | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd920…b7b6backed Orioles | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Rays | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Orioles | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…c4d9backed Rays | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Orioles | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Rays | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa3…951abacked Orioles | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Orioles | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…1467backed Orioles | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Orioles | 46c | 43.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceff…b448backed Orioles | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Orioles | 48c | 40.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…50c7backed Rays | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Orioles | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Orioles | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…1a90backed Orioles | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…275cbacked Orioles | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Orioles | 47c | 28.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Orioles | 47c | 24.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 531 | 50.5%268 W · 263 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Rays | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 337 | 50.4%170 W · 167 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…f4f6backed Rays | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f553backed Rays | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Rays | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.