CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db13f5dcc45c1e9189bc561f7d0f62e046a54af97c07d71e5e392e2136fddad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Aresof STATE, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 50c | 532$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.89 | 5,954 | 37.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L | +77.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6343backed STATE | 25c | 489$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…b32cbacked STATE | 31c | 396.39$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed G2 Ares | 69c | 371$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 2,561 | 43.2%1,107 W · 1,454 L | +42.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked G2 Ares | 55c | 328.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 5,183 | 37.1%1,924 W · 3,259 L | -274.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed STATE | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked STATE | 66c | 298.48$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.53 | 282 | 44.7%126 W · 156 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…3ab3backed G2 Ares | 47c | 297.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed STATE | 52c | 296.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.12 | 6,540 | 42.9%2,805 W · 3,735 L | -81.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked G2 Ares | 50c | 208.02$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 190 | 49.5%94 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed G2 Ares | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked STATE | 74c | 189.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 1,984 | 42.2%838 W · 1,146 L | -74.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked STATE | 60c | 169$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 3,274 | 51.3%1,678 W · 1,596 L | +91.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked STATE | 54c | 138.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 2,262 | 47.7%1,080 W · 1,182 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed STATE | 67c | 108.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 1,406 | 66.4%933 W · 473 L | +77.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed G2 Ares | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 389 | 48.8%190 W · 199 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked STATE | 56c | 102.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 1,598 | 51.6%824 W · 774 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked STATE | 33c | 100.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4,022 | 36.4%1,466 W · 2,556 L | -208.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…f3c8backed G2 Ares | 38c | 100.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed G2 Ares | 24c | 97.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 580 | 37.8%219 W · 361 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Ares | 55c | 95.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 4,879 | 43.4%2,116 W · 2,763 L | -93.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed G2 Ares | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 582 | 48.6%283 W · 299 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…21babacked G2 Ares | 34c | 85.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed G2 Ares | 52c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 2,442 | 46.8%1,142 W · 1,300 L | -54.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked STATE | 19c | 65.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 606 | 32.5%197 W · 409 L | -49.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked STATE | 38c | 59.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed G2 Ares | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 5,466 | 31.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L | -400.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked G2 Ares | 50c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 3,375 | 45.7%1,542 W · 1,833 L | -84.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed STATE | 38c | 50.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked STATE | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,279 | 54.3%694 W · 585 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked STATE | 56c | 46.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,713 | 52.2%895 W · 818 L | -75.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed G2 Ares | 31c | 39.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,206 | 42%506 W · 700 L | -20.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked G2 Ares | 44c | 35.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,293 | 43.3%994 W · 1,299 L | -70.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked G2 Ares | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2,634 | 34.6%912 W · 1,722 L | -204.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed G2 Ares | 47c | 25.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 254 | 50.8%129 W · 125 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed STATE | 57c | 21.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 123 | 75.6%93 W · 30 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked STATE | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 313 | 26.2%82 W · 231 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked STATE | 72c | 19.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,241 | 47.6%1,067 W · 1,174 L | -59.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs G2 Ares (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Group BG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs G2 Ares - Map 1 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.