NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc9ed47e5f376941ac7ac333e62f9f9e2bc45f535aa181d57358e314dfa1cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Red Wings, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Red Wings | 36c | 702.38$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Red Wings | 33c | 327.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Islanders | 67c | 323.49$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Red Wings | 32c | 264.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…5365backed Red Wings | 33c | 204.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Islanders | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Islanders | 68c | 146.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Islanders | 64c | 91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Islanders | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…5a46backed Islanders | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…85bfbacked Islanders | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…53c3backed Islanders | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Islanders | 67c | 41.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Red Wings | 33c | 34.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Islanders | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Islanders | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Islanders | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Islanders | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Islanders | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Islanders | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c28…a4bdbacked Islanders | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf320…3a40backed Islanders | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Islanders | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Islanders | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Islanders | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. Red WingsIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.