Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Tarvet vs. Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6deaad67d603272d973bb3556a2afc0ef380e1b2f7d0fa88bfff91ee2d12fada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcaraz of Tarvet , Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Tarvet | 2c | 50,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Tarvet | 2c | 9,996$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Tarvet | 2c | 8,290$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tarvet | 3c | 5,440$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…c5c1backed Tarvet | 2c | 5,430$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…b0f5backed Tarvet | 0c | 3,049$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Tarvet | 2c | 3,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Tarvet | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…cf00backed Tarvet | 0c | 2,766$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Tarvet | 1c | 2,752$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Tarvet | 2c | 2,542$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tarvet | 4c | 2,373$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Tarvet | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tarvet | 2c | 1,220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…f338backed Tarvet | 1c | 873.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Tarvet | 3c | 741.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Tarvet | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…d4d8backed Tarvet | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tarvet | 4c | 257$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.