Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e497088324aedf80f381930a02073f70db685c10a99853271f4b1816c643fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Minaur, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Mensik | 60c | 2,222$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.8 | 346 | 55.2%191 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Minaur | 40c | 2,166$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.9 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Mensik | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Minaur | 40c | 504.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Minaur | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 546 | 41.6%227 W · 319 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Mensik | 60c | 265.18$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Minaur | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Minaur | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Minaur | 58c | 220$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mensik | 42c | 210$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Minaur | 42c | 203.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 81 | 18.5%15 W · 66 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mensik | 57c | 190.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Minaur | 40c | 169.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Minaur | 40c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…939bbacked Minaur | 43c | 127.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Minaur | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Mensik | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Minaur | 41c | 101.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Mensik | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Minaur | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 910 | 50.2%457 W · 453 L | -20.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Minaur | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Minaur | 40c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Minaur | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 184 | 43.5%80 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Mensik | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Mensik | 61c | 54.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Minaur | 41c | 50.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 132 | 31.1%41 W · 91 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Minaur | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,269 | 44.8%568 W · 701 L | -5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Minaur | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Minaur | 48c | 30.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Mensik | 61c | 30.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mensik | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Mensik | 61c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Mensik | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -13.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Alex de Minaur vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Minaur vs. Mensik: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub MensikJakub Mensik won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs MensikMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)Mensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.