CS2 · resolved market
Will Astralis win the PGL Astana Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e5437839344345eedd024bcc2509b9c2e31a1ec523ebbd1d86837eb5f9bc361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,850$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 13c | 2,833$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.48 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Yes | 14c | 2,517$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.87 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,313$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd613…e999backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 21c | 752.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Yes | 13c | 700$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…e83bbacked Yes | 16c | 618.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f2…f6c4backed Yes | 14c | 558.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…97b6backed Yes | 15c | 558.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 7c | 408$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 398.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…25b4backed Yes | 19c | 339.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 14c | 330.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…44c2backed Yes | 17c | 297.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 273$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…c75abacked Yes | 15c | 162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…55c4backed Yes | 15c | 140.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed Yes | 12c | 136.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 17c | 116.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…1b2bbacked Yes | 20c | 115.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Astralis win the PGL Astana Tournament?this page
- Will Aurora win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will FURIA win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will G2 win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Spirit win the PGL Astana Tournament?Yes won
- Will The MongolZ win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Virtus.pro win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will paiN win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.