CS2 · resolved market
Will Aurora win the PGL Astana Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c0067b7363b5278e45208bee4ebd473abb7617e6fc836835975322014937d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…82dbbacked Yes | 8c | 471.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 10c | 300.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 12c | 258.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 11c | 253.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 238.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…13febacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…c603backed Yes | 12c | 125.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed Yes | 25c | 100.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…f6e5backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aurora win the PGL Astana Tournament?this page
- Will Astralis win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will FURIA win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will G2 win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Spirit win the PGL Astana Tournament?Yes won
- Will The MongolZ win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will Virtus.pro win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
- Will paiN win the PGL Astana Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.