Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8a5cf1466a8abf7f78cef3e9561f2ced49945426a7bad393eb6a6ac82d255d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PARIVISION, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PlayTime | 42c | 558.72$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.82 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked PlayTime | 41c | 304.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed PARIVISION | 59c | 299.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 55c | 269.09$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed PlayTime | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…0539backed PARIVISION | 29c | 239.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed PARIVISION | 63c | 235.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked PlayTime | 71c | 164.72$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed PARIVISION | 61c | 164.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PlayTime | 39c | 159.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed PlayTime | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed PARIVISION | 60c | 83.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed PlayTime | 40c | 83.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked PlayTime | 42c | 71.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed PlayTime | 61c | 65.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed PlayTime | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked PARIVISION | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…e961backed PARIVISION | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed PlayTime | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.