Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 86°F or higher on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ea5baa7e29f40948073082bd2cd3e073be7a42a6e1e0c7db3a2ed30adbb4499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 5,094$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.34 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 16c | 2,976$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.03 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 3c | 1,853$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…570cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,721$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,504$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 21c | 1,335$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 8c | 1,318$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 10c | 1,090$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,011$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…8cf4backed Yes | 3c | 1,009$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed No | 56c | 608.01$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.4 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 23c | 560.56$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 79c | 372.03$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 11c | 163$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 72c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…ef30backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…ccf3backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…f2dabacked No | 78c | 97.42$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 87.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 78c | 41.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…3887backed No | 78c | 38.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…36e8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 86°F or higher on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 75°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 76-77°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 78-79°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 80-81°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 82-83°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 84-85°F on April 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.