Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ea85dae62b7b7fe25325a056470255c9e6f74cc123df928c62bc8f1e6a5da96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Berrettini, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fonseca | 58c | 1,008$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.36 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Berrettini | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5737…15dabacked Fonseca | 61c | 738.22$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Fonseca | 58c | 384.01$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Berrettini | 35c | 372.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Fonseca | 69c | 284.46$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Berrettini | 34c | 271.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Berrettini | 42c | 208.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…edcfbacked Berrettini | 47c | 207.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Berrettini | 40c | 207.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Berrettini | 42c | 190$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Fonseca | 58c | 168.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Berrettini | 39c | 138.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Berrettini | 47c | 105.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…57a3backed Fonseca | 57c | 101.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Fonseca | 67c | 92.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Berrettini | 37c | 45.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Berrettini | 46c | 44.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Berrettini | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 212 | 56.1%119 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Berrettini | 40c | 38.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Berrettini | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Fonseca | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Fonsecathis page
- Berrettini vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.