Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5861b0b2804099ae20a90179f783ed6224824bb15a3da9d0a119dd05294c3be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fonseca, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fonseca | 33c | 2,104$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.9 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Fonseca | 41c | 1,023$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.3 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Fonseca | 39c | 847.83$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.43 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Berrettini | 66c | 704.01$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.24 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Berrettini | 67c | 588.35$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.12 | 850 | 57.5%489 W · 361 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed Berrettini | 67c | 585.95$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.06 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Berrettini | 60c | 386.51$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.37 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…f158backed Berrettini | 66c | 385.9$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Fonseca | 35c | 376.2$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.53 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…6d85backed Berrettini | 67c | 368.06$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fonseca | 33c | 352.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…bbb5backed Berrettini | 73c | 338.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Berrettini | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fonseca | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…3ba3backed Berrettini | 66c | 296.85$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Berrettini | 67c | 270.66$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.83 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…ec00backed Fonseca | 42c | 258.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.01 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…6b0fbacked Berrettini | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fonseca | 51c | 150.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Berrettini | 69c | 142.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Fonseca | 34c | 139.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Berrettini | 60c | 138.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Berrettini | 18c | 121.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 321 | 31.2%100 W · 221 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Berrettini | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Berrettini | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 99 | 68.7%68 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Berrettini | 67c | 88.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…9936backed Berrettini | 66c | 84.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…bd68backed Berrettini | 66c | 80.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed Berrettini | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Fonseca | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Fonseca | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…a673backed Berrettini | 65c | 52.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Berrettini | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Berrettini | 67c | 42.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Berrettini | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…566dbacked Berrettini | 65c | 37.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Fonseca | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Berrettini | 67c | 36.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2238…e069backed Berrettini | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Berrettini | 62c | 27.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 790 | 62.2%491 W · 299 L | +25.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Berrettini | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Fonseca | 56c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)this page
- Berrettini vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs FonsecaFonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.