Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eb4bdd79aedf25ce7e130e7ead0aa35c6e579ebb7e620cbd25cbda8b917774f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Auger-Aliassime, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 3,616$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.76 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Tiafoe | 56c | 1,968$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.05 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Auger-Aliassime | 43c | 999.98$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tiafoe | 56c | 908.96$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.94 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Tiafoe | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Tiafoe | 57c | 600.82$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.35 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Tiafoe | 57c | 357.54$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.9 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…46c6backed Tiafoe | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Tiafoe | 57c | 234.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Tiafoe | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Tiafoe | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…13a1backed Tiafoe | 59c | 122$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Auger-Aliassime | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tiafoe | 57c | 68.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Tiafoe | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 50.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Tiafoe | 53c | 26.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Tiafoe | 55c | 22.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-AliassimeFrances Tiafoe won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Auger-AliassimeTiafoe won
- Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Auger-AliassimeTiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.