Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ecd21c94c966c97400c04d739bb43f229d601dfd5aed9757273a24e4a8dcbc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 15c | 417.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 391.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 346.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 6c | 324.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 298.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 297.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 12c | 295.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 270.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 248.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 13c | 244.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 226.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 220.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 12c | 200.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…0d02backed Yes | 11c | 200.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 196.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 17c | 195.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 15c | 191.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 15c | 177.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 19c | 176.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 12c | 166.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe905…c709backed Yes | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 145.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 14c | 122.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 122.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 13c | 105.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 14c | 102.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 97.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 16c | 92.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 14c | 77.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 21c | 74.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 17c | 71.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 19c | 68.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 68.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 17c | 63.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 59.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 36.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…7fc6backed No | 79c | 24.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 80c | 21.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.