Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e61e3be8f0acc01002de62b6bc30a17131669c1a8963846510dbc6991af9da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 1c | 2,283$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 506.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 460.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 455.09$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 359.73$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 62c | 346.07$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 37c | 281.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 253.91$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 56c | 248.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 56c | 245.23$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 64c | 211.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 68c | 208.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 200.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 195.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 191.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 53c | 178.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 154.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 151.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 33c | 127.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 38c | 123.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c04…a98fbacked Yes | 54c | 107.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 44c | 106.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 48c | 104.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 101.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 18c | 87.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 46c | 86.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 85.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 34c | 81.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 60c | 79.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 39c | 75.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 74.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 38c | 73.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 55c | 65.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 45c | 65.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 30c | 65.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 58c | 63.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…80c1backed No | 37c | 63.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 59.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 70c | 59.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 50c | 54.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 54.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 54c | 52.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 55c | 52.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 33c | 52.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 33c | 51.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 71c | 51.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 38c | 50.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…f2dcbacked Yes | 29c | 49.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 48.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 50c | 48.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 36c | 47.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 46.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 44c | 46.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 42c | 46.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 49c | 45.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…932dbacked Yes | 49c | 44.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 57c | 43.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 54c | 43.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 65c | 43.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 46c | 42.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 43c | 42.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 27c | 41.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 39.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 38c | 38.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…2c42backed No | 50c | 38.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 50c | 37.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 54c | 36.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 51c | 35.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 40c | 35.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 69c | 34.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 48c | 34.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…1aa9backed No | 75c | 34.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 52c | 33.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 44c | 33.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 33.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…bd8cbacked No | 48c | 32.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 44c | 32.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 32.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 48c | 31.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 48c | 30.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 64c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 29.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 48c | 28.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 49c | 28.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 39c | 28.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 54c | 27.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 52c | 27.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 48c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 75c | 24.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…b188backed Yes | 51c | 24.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.