TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c627.85$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No77c562.17$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.341,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf97b…c751backed Yes24c523.83$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.021735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes28c516.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.151,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes34c377.63$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.378,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes35c343.52$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes18c272.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.261,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes26c268.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4421436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes28c222.27$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.551,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes18c211.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4921235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes17c207.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes35c205.84$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.469626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c196.65$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.884,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes18c196.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8976924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes27c170.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3633450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No77c159.63$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.221,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c157.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c148.88$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.893,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes27c146.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.791,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No73c121.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2427560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes23c115.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.371,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No67c111.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5419259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No66c109.31$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8341070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No74c100.26$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0718452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2211126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2226236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd7…a265backed No73c98.91$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.431957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes14c98.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.971,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a28…0e02backed No66c89.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.244452.3%23 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d3…def7backed No67c77.39$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes14c75.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x497f…d987backed Yes35c71.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.622733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6032…4245backed Yes17c69.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.654330.2%13 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Yes24c68.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.644647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes39c67.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.512638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes23c65.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.171,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d3…4e40backed No63c64.69$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.925058%29 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes23c63.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.611,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes28c59.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.662,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes22c55.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2321722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes26c54.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.157841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes25c53.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2933535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes23c52.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1310537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No64c52.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8624066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes25c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c84…88f3backed Yes39c49.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.222657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes37c49.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3841733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No70c48.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6423349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes25c47.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df7…ca12backed No64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No71c43.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5629770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No61c43.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8931170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x10e8…8ae2backed Yes27c42.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed No64c40.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.738851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1415477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes37c39.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed No72c38.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.892857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8d…f707backed Yes37c37.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.993056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No78c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.475062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No62c33.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes34c33.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2431029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d2e…104fbacked Yes34c32.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c32.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.892,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes39c31.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6def…7849backed No64c30.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.952263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No62c28.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9719753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No70c27.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No66c25.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e87…5eb7backed No60c24.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No72c21.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8932669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No71c20.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0857038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No65c19.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9276371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…b489backed No74c19.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061794.1%16 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick72cpaid+30.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No75c19.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8310444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f6…f045backed No75c19.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.833580%28 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No62c19.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3116366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019e…f2bfbacked No73c18.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No66c18.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2115954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2bf…95d3backed No63c17.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No78c17.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8634057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2c…3cedbacked No67c17.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.74742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac4…9966backed No73c16.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41883.3%15 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c16.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.39,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No73c16.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.394748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc9f…b4e1backed No66c15.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.47153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No66c15.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No75c14.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.77546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.