Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03304d3a67d7808d24102649c26a98ca40f940e94a6ceb4d69c4d13bc332dd84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 627.85$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 562.17$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 24c | 523.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 516.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 377.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 343.52$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 272.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 26c | 268.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 222.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 18c | 211.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 207.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 35c | 205.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 196.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 18c | 196.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 170.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 159.63$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 157.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 148.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 146.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 73c | 121.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 115.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 111.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 66c | 109.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 74c | 100.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 73c | 98.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 98.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 66c | 89.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…def7backed No | 67c | 77.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 75.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 35c | 71.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 17c | 69.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 24c | 68.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 39c | 67.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 65.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 63c | 64.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 63.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 28c | 59.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 22c | 55.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 26c | 54.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 25c | 53.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 23c | 52.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 64c | 52.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 39c | 49.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 49.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 70c | 48.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 25c | 47.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…ca12backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 71c | 43.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 61c | 43.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…8ae2backed Yes | 27c | 42.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 64c | 40.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 37c | 39.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 72c | 38.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed Yes | 37c | 37.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 33.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 33.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…104fbacked Yes | 34c | 32.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 32.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 31.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed No | 64c | 30.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 62c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 70c | 27.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 66c | 25.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 60c | 24.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 19.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 75c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 75c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…f2bfbacked No | 73c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 66c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 63c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 78c | 17.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…3cedbacked No | 67c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 73c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 73c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 66c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 75c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.