Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica win on 2025-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ed569040b5bee9c56f5813fe04594024017e5fe427b032c3334ebf6d9fa8135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 5c | 56,048$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.82 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Yes | 11c | 21,142$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.89 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 11c | 5,399$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.14 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…7f58backed Yes | 11c | 5,068$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +306.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 12c | 5,050$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 17c | 4,027$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 12c | 1,816$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.76 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…f2eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Yes | 12c | 965$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 79c | 817.16$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 3c | 601.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Yes | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 12c | 433$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…8c1abacked Yes | 13c | 426.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 11c | 208.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…9de0backed Yes | 8c | 204.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca56…d114backed Yes | 8c | 169.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…d0b8backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…fe48backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 12c | 128.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…1730backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 15c | 111.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 99.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 12c | 87.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica win on 2025-03-11?this page
- Will Barcelona vs. Benfica end in a draw?No won
- Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.