Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ee7dc317629e66155461c776d6359f91e5fc03d7615c586ffdaf8b3b78184f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas State Red Wolvesof Texas State Bobcats, Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Texas State Bobcats | 24c | 1,227$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.53 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 75c | 1,177$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.71 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 9c | 1,062$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Texas State Bobcats | 15c | 991$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas State Bobcats | 7c | 753.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Texas State Bobcats | 27c | 583$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Texas State Bobcats | 9c | 471$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 74c | 424.97$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Texas State Bobcats | 11c | 380.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Texas State Bobcats | 20c | 319$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas State Bobcats | 13c | 191$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Texas State Bobcats | 10c | 127.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 94 | 12.8%12 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Texas State Bobcats | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Texas State Bobcats | 21c | 96.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 70.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Texas State Bobcats | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolvesthis page
- Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 156.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.