MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef451ab568254b51775d6539496a26355475e4c91481907127e31087d89baf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Washington Nationals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,613 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 51c | 6,967$3,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.31 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 51c | 2,729$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.45 | 858 | 49.4%424 W · 434 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 2,545$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.44 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 2,173$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.6 | 997 | 50.1%499 W · 498 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 2,063$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.3 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 725$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.25 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 520$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Washington Nationals | 22c | 304.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 209.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3,320 | 46.2%1,535 W · 1,785 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Washington Nationals | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 173$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 53c | 151.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Houston Astros | 50c | 128.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 101.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Houston Astros | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,213 | 49.1%595 W · 618 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Houston Astros | 49c | 78.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 1,286 | 49.4%635 W · 651 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 51.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdf…509dbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Houston Astros | 55c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Houston Astros | 52c | 25.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Houston Astros | 63c | 20.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 20.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Houston Astros | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.