La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1c3c39d1dde0b6886fc06c68321fb2d40f7efcc6680eb0da12bf516614ad26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 46c | 3,766$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.07 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 12c | 2,822$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.43 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 34c | 2,802$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.63 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 2,677$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.02 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 1,588$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.56 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 15c | 1,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 14c | 1,446$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.46 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 13c | 1,216$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.92 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 66c | 1,100$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.39 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 41c | 1,040$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.2 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…38c3backed Yes | 37c | 1,040$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 5c | 921.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 36c | 548.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.57 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 11c | 433.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 38c | 359.43$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…22d2backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 46c | 331.55$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.84 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 63c | 310.28$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 63c | 306.35$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 17c | 249.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 77c | 239$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 42c | 145.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 65c | 122.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…6784backed Yes | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 62c | 90.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…58e3backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…92bdbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…0677backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 50c | 32.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…3758backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will Levante UD vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?No won
- Will Levante UD win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.