Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Astana FK win on 2026-07-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f4e0427835d0b649e28a3b8f5942a5c60c735e3d14d4cbfc7e7d7c03ab218f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 33c | 2,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.95 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 70c | 1,743$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.72 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 955.47$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.27 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 428.92$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.01 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 68c | 362$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.06 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 68c | 361.98$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.05 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 71c | 357.05$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.59 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 76c | 355.86$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.42 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 19c | 285.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.13 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 68c | 285.19$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 36c | 254.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 78c | 173.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 143.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 29c | 119$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed No | 15c | 113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 31c | 109.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 100.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 29c | 78.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 67c | 55.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Yes | 19c | 52.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed No | 67c | 43.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 33c | 30.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 60c | 23.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked No | 60c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Astana FK win on 2026-07-09?this page
- Will FC Dinamo City vs. Astana FK end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Dinamo City win on 2026-07-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.