Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc5a3f2dfdcc0849c405bf606d2e6cab1951a4e3e00bf7b7ffc84b2ef9aa8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c2f…e910backed Yes | 35c | 2,790$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…a056backed No | 65c | 1,400$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…5abbbacked No | 65c | 1,390$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 74c | 999.96$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 398.13$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.77 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 392.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 372.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.65 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 362.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.52 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 73c | 339.39$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 30c | 331.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 285.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 223.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 198.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…d42ebacked Yes | 18c | 114.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 107.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 14c | 97.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 21c | 95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 24c | 84.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 81.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 25c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 45c | 48.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 48.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…710fbacked Yes | 29c | 47.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 36.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 32.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…0ff1backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.