TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TCU Horned Frogsof TCU Horned Frogs, Ohio State Buckeyes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,014 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked TCU Horned Frogs47c635$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.5546246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Ohio State Buckeyes53c634.42$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.242,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Ohio State Buckeyes43c439.43$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.283,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed TCU Horned Frogs57c385.39$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7222250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked TCU Horned Frogs56c378.14$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.0412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ohio State Buckeyes49c327.53$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.611,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Ohio State Buckeyes43c105.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5452843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed TCU Horned Frogs46c89.65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.632,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed TCU Horned Frogs45c86.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4224951.8%129 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Ohio State Buckeyes54c42.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0964647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.