Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7023d803db532d420d04bb31bc4b6fa33219ce5bb9889548dd4d521a60a7d355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sport Lisboa e Benficaof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, AFC Ajax
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 26c | 2,307$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AFC Ajax | 74c | 1,511$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.45 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AFC Ajax | 69c | 1,059$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.39 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed AFC Ajax | 78c | 514.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 455$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed AFC Ajax | 75c | 140.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 27c | 101.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 28c | 100.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…2854backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 28c | 93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AFC Ajax | 73c | 78.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 26c | 74.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b60ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed AFC Ajax | 60c | 49.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 27c | 45.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed AFC Ajax | 72c | 39.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed AFC Ajax | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed AFC Ajax | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.