Champions League · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf051f4b3abce4266540c612ac2f15c31b8975a5e99fef54af34bb2e8c4806374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Yes | 57c | 885.21$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 59c | 517$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 331.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.51 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 43c | 317.34$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 61c | 280$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 39c | 275.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 42c | 256.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 232.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 43c | 201.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d539backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed No | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 38c | 165.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Yes | 61c | 116.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…2854backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 59c | 88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 69c | 65.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 39c | 47.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…6e09backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 41c | 42.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…9312backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.