AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff1e86d38eb0380f1a08ede31fd00fddd392e935c7c58f60962d3ad532d9c61

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,747 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	44c	3,097$1,357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,739.61	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	44c	3,005$1,316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,688.53	460	48.5%223 W · 237 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Over	59c	2,566$1,523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,523.31	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over	53c	1,890$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	45c	1,663$741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$922.24	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	45c	1,398$632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.68	375	44%165 W · 210 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf763…414fbacked Over	58c	1,051$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.35	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-4.2wins	-0.28per pick	41cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Over	55c	1,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aff…c55ebacked Under	51c	962.25$491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under	47c	724.93$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.26	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Over	58c	547.17$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	49	69.4%34 W · 15 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	41c	515.18$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.79	306	57.5%176 W · 130 L	+11.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Over	58c	500$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-5.5wins	-0.17per pick	59cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	42c	499.99$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.99	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Over	58c	479$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	61	70.5%43 W · 18 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Over	54c	462.96$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	83	54.2%45 W · 38 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	52c	384.77$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.88	74	56.8%42 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda8f…1d91backed Over	43c	348.84$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Over	58c	344.83$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	55	67.3%37 W · 18 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Under	37c	327.46$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Over	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb018…8f4bbacked Over	55c	300$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Over	51c	293.62$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over	52c	240$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.8	69	59.4%41 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	48c	226.12$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.48	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over	52c	223.9$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.43	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a91…5b78backed Over	51c	214$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…357bbacked Under	43c	200$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ce…dc3cbacked Over	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over	55c	189.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over	57c	189.89$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.24	111	35.1%39 W · 72 L	-6.1wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15a7…9725backed Over	55c	182$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under	44c	181.82$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.82	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over	58c	172.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4610…0eb3backed Over	55c	150$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Under	54c	145$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.7	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	51c	121.22$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.82	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d1…84a2backed Over	55c	119.98$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.99	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2109…55bfbacked Over	59c	115$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.85	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Over	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a9…caccbacked Over	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dca…ab11backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	42c	97.31$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.4	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd136…c242backed Over	52c	94.23$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	49c	91.92$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.23	217	45.6%99 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	58c	86.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	198	56.6%112 W · 86 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	53c	84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.52	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under	47c	84$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	449	55.7%250 W · 199 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b3…07f2backed Over	71c	70.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d4…bbeebacked Over	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1170…8398backed Over	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Over	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	78	76.9%60 W · 18 L	+9.4wins	+0.12per pick	65cpaid	+23%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under	47c	63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.39	144	47.2%68 W · 76 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over	54c	55.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	52c	52.6$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a96…e12fbacked Under	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.29per pick	43cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0742…c66cbacked Over	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fdc…6d51backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x877e…d958backed Over	58c	49.74$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	70cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f8…1afcbacked Over	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75e1…1b07backed Under	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…a925backed Over	52c	44.17$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb9…2772backed Over	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a3…102cbacked Under	44c	42.3$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.75	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	47c	42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.26	383	56.7%217 W · 166 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	47c	42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.26	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71ca…6ed5backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under	42c	34.48$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	257	35%90 W · 167 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Over	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-4.6wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84b2…f1dabacked Over	60c	31.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under	47c	29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.37	283	57.2%162 W · 121 L	+15.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	38c	28.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	178	55.6%99 W · 79 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	42c	23.99$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.92	290	34.5%100 W · 190 L	+16.0wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x098c…d077backed Over	58c	22.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	55cpaid	+57%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Under	49c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.13	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3501…0591backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.18per pick	59cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2439…8729backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	63cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd33…81d1backed Over	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-4.9wins	-0.29per pick	64cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xceb7…142abacked Over	67c	17.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bca…dcaabacked Over	60c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5this page
AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event