Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x707b7493ae8ace57da67cebcf6022a156b90593193300a96d169112dd49ccb97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 3,450$2,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.6 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,313$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.83 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 613.57$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 23c | 539.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 29c | 199.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 25c | 176.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 167.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 26c | 156$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 8c | 151.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 30c | 137$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 123.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 118$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 100.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 33c | 93.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 77c | 90.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 88.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 84.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 29c | 82.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 81.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 80.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 77.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 24c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…6bc7backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 32c | 69.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 27c | 64.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 18c | 61.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 21c | 57.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…5c65backed Yes | 25c | 54.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 53c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 52.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 49.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 80c | 47.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 189 | 39.7%75 W · 114 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 80c | 46.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 39.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 71c | 35.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 73c | 34.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 45c | 33.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 46c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 80c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 19.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 70c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.