NFL · resolved market
Will the announcers say "Knee" 5+ times during Patriots vs Bills game? (October 5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7083c26c90e5296b90ac16f2eb671f7776e92a725a0c1ac2e7609bf512c1171d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 6c | 1,930$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 51c | 1,305$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed No | 51c | 1,013$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…af68backed No | 46c | 704.33$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…f1d3backed Yes | 56c | 555$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…5969backed No | 50c | 45.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed Yes | 50c | 45.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the announcers say "Knee" 5+ times during Patriots vs Bills game? (October 5)this page
- Will the announcers say "Overtime" during Patriots vs Bills game? (October 5)Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Safety" during Patriots vs Bills game? (October 5)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.