Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x708fc13a46be91d0760509b6419e03672a6a43216cf8691c806b622916410546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 36c | 11,092$4,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,022.7 | 2,575 | 45.6%1,174 W · 1,401 L | +12.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 72c | 7,216$5,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.55 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 79c | 3,929$3,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 2,653$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.1 | 2,013 | 39.4%794 W · 1,219 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 47c | 2,427$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.31 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,353$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.62 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 8c | 562.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 10c | 507.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 54c | 499.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 26c | 480$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae7…7ee5backed Yes | 41c | 475.66$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 47c | 214.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 46c | 177.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 71c | 169.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…7deabacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…234dbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 46c | 79.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked No | 26c | 47.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 431 | 58.5%252 W · 179 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 47c | 38.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 46c | 34.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 53c | 34.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 48c | 31.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…49ebbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…8efbbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…1176backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will Cagliari vs. Bologna end in a draw?No won
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.