Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Marozsan vs. Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7096983e563ac5d7b36b981dfcd093975db3c03eefc46003d261588338ef7ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Marozsan, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe548…a51abacked Marozsan | 47c | 4,237$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.55 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Machac | 53c | 2,244$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.57 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marozsan | 27c | 1,143$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.01 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Marozsan | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Machac | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Machac | 53c | 926.95$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.66 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Marozsan | 38c | 667.74$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Machac | 54c | 516.39$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.54 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Machac | 56c | 354.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Machac | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Machac | 53c | 198.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Machac | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Machac | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Machac | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…3487backed Machac | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Machac | 55c | 73.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Machac | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Machac | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Machac | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Machac | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Machac | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.