Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Mackenzie McDonald vs Liam Draxl
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70ad3a2d97f0a4b055fd2e5faf83a86ff705df11c3a6b055b1aa60506b5c1061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draxlof McDonald, Draxl
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Draxl | 12c | 823.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.35 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Draxl | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked McDonald | 71c | 453.12$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.55 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked McDonald | 72c | 404.44$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Draxl | 39c | 367.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.88 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Draxl | 28c | 360$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019d…2b01backed McDonald | 71c | 352.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Draxl | 23c | 145.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Draxl | 28c | 123.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Draxl | 32c | 83.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Draxl | 37c | 72.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed McDonald | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed McDonald | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed McDonald | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc4…46c0backed McDonald | 71c | 41.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Draxl | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…f757backed McDonald | 72c | 15.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.