Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c1972672edd69801c14880daeeb771cc076101a1def593d13273dd2461e959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 394.92$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 330.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 19c | 191.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 172.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 158.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 74c | 156.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 153.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 64c | 153.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 57c | 137.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 24c | 114.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 80.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 71.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 37c | 70.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 32c | 69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 53c | 59.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 24c | 58.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 49.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 39c | 43.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 66c | 42.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 42.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…6663backed Yes | 63c | 38.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 29c | 35.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…d2a3backed No | 39c | 35.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 57c | 33.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 38c | 30.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 63c | 28.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 57c | 28.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…92c3backed No | 40c | 28.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 26.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 26.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 42c | 25.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 47c | 23.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 48c | 23.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…c1e1backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 16.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.