MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70deb131436619dc9439dfa39d21f53839a4ceeeebdbe121136f8213c8728ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 1,083$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.25 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 1,061$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.82 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 608.57$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.71 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 446.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 416.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.64 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 404.86$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…57e8backed Under | 55c | 359.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 55c | 178.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 67.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 44c | 60.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 45.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 48c | 41.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 38.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 55c | 32.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 42c | 27.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 23.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 20.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 19.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.