MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5e0ab6b9c5d8feba53dc5f16243fc5e72c3a2edcab4eb35103feef4d420dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 2,730$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 2,608$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,731$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 47c | 1,053$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 993.19$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.8 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 599.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 472.22$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.22 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 399.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 369.34$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 202.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 163.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 55c | 144.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 53c | 119.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 99.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 29c | 79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 53.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 47c | 53.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 48c | 45.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 47c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 56c | 36.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…7564backed Under | 47c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 29.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 62c | 28.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0acabacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 47c | 22.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 49c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.