Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712aa9b2c170c4fb0031ccc6fc269501836fe066db5f5091142a35ee3cfe4f6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 1c | 2,466$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 69c | 562.58$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.7 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 311.5$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 264.65$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 54c | 248.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 33c | 247.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 243.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 186.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…ec40backed Yes | 32c | 159.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 9c | 149.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 126.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 39c | 109.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 103.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 12c | 100.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 91.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 15c | 88.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 65c | 75.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 71.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 17c | 70.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 23c | 66.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…e684backed Yes | 21c | 57.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…b3e2backed Yes | 22c | 49.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 40c | 48.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 47c | 46.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 40.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 59c | 38.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 34.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 18.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…a33fbacked Yes | 71c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.