Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712ed0f6283f1e3aea37ed875f83333a34f219f030b5d6344b7108874b9e3ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 9c | 720.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 26c | 355.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 215.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 16c | 172.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 150.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 122.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 28c | 106.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 102.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 30c | 100.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 91.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 87.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 30c | 85.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 29c | 65.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 62.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 60.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 53.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…67b8backed Yes | 30c | 48.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 45.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 39.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 35.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 16.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 74c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.