Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Reilly Opelka vs Mattia Bellucci
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71601dc3d2aa5b8222c2b202eb62004c91611b4ef77b9d7a15c3012cf1edd230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Opelkaof Opelka, Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0c5…f211backed Bellucci | 27c | 1,461$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Opelka | 74c | 1,085$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.78 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Bellucci | 44c | 1,028$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.9 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Opelka | 55c | 862.91$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.31 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Opelka | 59c | 429.98$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.69 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bellucci | 41c | 410.14$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.34 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…3913backed Bellucci | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Opelka | 59c | 339.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Opelka | 80c | 224.34$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Opelka | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Opelka | 78c | 95.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Opelka | 53c | 89.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffaa…7fd4backed Bellucci | 45c | 66.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…37b6backed Opelka | 60c | 65.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Opelka | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…a478backed Bellucci | 47c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef53…9730backed Opelka | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.