Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Omar Jasika
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71781463c26d03886f381c6149e7b0fa55b8b90c1847c79ad90058598c212027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Omar Jasikaof Kosuke Ogura, Omar Jasika
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Omar Jasika | 60c | 1,087$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.67 | 6,584 | 54.4%3,584 W · 3,000 L | +286.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe804…33cfbacked Kosuke Ogura | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kosuke Ogura | 24c | 681.86$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Kosuke Ogura | 40c | 570.69$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.33 | 6,725 | 46.2%3,108 W · 3,617 L | -42.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Omar Jasika | 65c | 435.33$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kosuke Ogura | 36c | 229.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Omar Jasika | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 652 | 65.8%429 W · 223 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kosuke Ogura | 38c | 154.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Omar Jasika | 60c | 108.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Omar Jasika | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Omar Jasika | 63c | 104$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…a9a7backed Kosuke Ogura | 29c | 103.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Omar Jasika | 71c | 100.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Omar Jasika | 64c | 89.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Kosuke Ogura | 42c | 78.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1,863 | 41.1%765 W · 1,098 L | -32.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Omar Jasika | 59c | 64.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Omar Jasika | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Omar Jasika | 64c | 51.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 409 | 50.6%207 W · 202 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Omar Jasika | 63c | 34.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Omar Jasika | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.