CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AM (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x717d0adf4487d02db8648a7b9287b6cd70d131528b91a35d8d2e9e058cb847ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- megoshortof AM Gaming, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98e5…f069backed AM Gaming | 56c | 2,452$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.51 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1661…4b37backed AM Gaming | 64c | 999.72$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.81 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed megoshort | 43c | 573.85$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.35 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed megoshort | 40c | 497.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked AM Gaming | 60c | 391.38$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.23 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed megoshort | 44c | 388$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.66 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf868…3b45backed megoshort | 40c | 388$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed megoshort | 32c | 384.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.38 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed megoshort | 42c | 340$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed AM Gaming | 57c | 279.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed megoshort | 45c | 246.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.67 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked megoshort | 43c | 223$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed megoshort | 43c | 198.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked megoshort | 43c | 153.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed megoshort | 45c | 137.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed megoshort | 44c | 131.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 280 | 52.9%148 W · 132 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…8f34backed megoshort | 43c | 110.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed megoshort | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked megoshort | 32c | 87.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed megoshort | 39c | 81.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked megoshort | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed megoshort | 43c | 62.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed AM Gaming | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked megoshort | 43c | 42.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed AM Gaming | 58c | 39.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed AM Gaming | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed AM Gaming | 71c | 24.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AM (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group StageAM Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort - Map 1 WinnerAM Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort - Map 2 Winnermegoshort won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.