Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-01-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718e8a244071a3695aa06c1a925837d34a6fae99da6d0fc6045c56465513a005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf975…4354backed No | 63c | 5,249$3,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 36c | 3,355$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.83 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 3,292$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 17c | 1,738$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.46 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 38c | 1,131$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.73 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 33c | 1,060$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.46 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 37c | 812.43$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.77 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 28c | 642.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 611.22$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 17c | 355.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed No | 75c | 347$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 17c | 344.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 18c | 287.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…7a05backed Yes | 10c | 176.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 20c | 137.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 34c | 136.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 17c | 129.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 37c | 116.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 21c | 94.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 72c | 80.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yes | 17c | 74.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 15c | 70.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 39c | 67.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 78c | 64.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed No | 77c | 45.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 36c | 37.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 56c | 35.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 28.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-01-25?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-01-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.