Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7196c84e190717ab1aac47d12818d29feeb129ab89baa41e3e408db2f7521b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stanford Cardinalof North Carolina Tar Heels, Stanford Cardinal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $422,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $422,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Stanford Cardinal | 51c | 387,223$197,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189,743.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 200,000$98,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,000 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 142,779$69,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,961.72 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 31,925$16,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,023.89 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 7,912$3,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842.84 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 4,257$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.52 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…ffa9backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 3,938$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…1eacbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 3,273$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 2,709$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.21 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…e5c6backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed Stanford Cardinal | 47c | 1,979$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.87 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Stanford Cardinal | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Stanford Cardinal | 50c | 268$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 247.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Stanford Cardinal | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Stanford Cardinal | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Stanford Cardinal | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 121.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 78.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 53.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Stanford Cardinal | 49c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…c7dfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 54c | 39.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5)this page
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Stanford CardinalStanford Cardinal won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 144.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.