Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71a99290a47b297e357daa94255757ede8e039f5050be746670666906f6e61d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,594$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 3c | 7,104$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.31 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…4f33backed No | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9a4abacked Yes | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 58c | 3,995$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.18 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 13c | 3,262$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.99 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5857…9c67backed Yes | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 29c | 2,338$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6649…6876backed Yes | 52c | 2,200$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…a6b7backed Yes | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b31…2181backed Yes | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 65c | 978.34$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.75 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 799.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 68c | 765.3$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.48 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…58dabacked No | 50c | 576$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 9c | 543$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 488.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 50c | 400.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…7e61backed No | 53c | 375.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 289.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…efa4backed Yes | 12c | 205.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 16c | 193.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 10c | 155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…74e2backed Yes | 60c | 120.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 22c | 72.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4394…3055backed Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed No | 48c | 34.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 29.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x025f…25cfbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked No | 53c | 27.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…2357backed Yes | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 9-15?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.70 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.50 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.90 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 February 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.