Space · resolved market
Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71dfcc163a40472f0ec1f110184f5a7eab093dad3e3b47909f79764b96f07444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 7c | 6,447$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 6,367$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,221$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed No | 64c | 406.25$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 71c | 300$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 32c | 262.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 37c | 199.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 126.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…3be1backed Yes | 23c | 71.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…414dbacked No | 69c | 71.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 30c | 71.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…d7c2backed No | 68c | 62.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d23…fbe1backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…0b2ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…a4f1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…b1a8backed No | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.