Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71ed572e58bce40e9d09617c416c233258ade6aedc2f670b279af976d0fdabc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,782$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 415.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 12c | 344.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 15c | 325.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 272.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 12c | 206.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 179.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 11c | 163.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 18c | 145.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 15c | 138.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 12c | 137.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 15c | 125.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 10c | 123.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 11c | 122.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 113.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 12c | 112.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 77.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 20c | 73.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 19c | 59.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.