TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,460

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c675.07$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.365,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes29c500.11$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8318732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes3c497.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9412536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c389.84$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c366.21$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.753,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No64c363.38$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5684124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c331.64$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No67c322.89$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9421865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed Yes31c200.64$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5923030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No65c200.5$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.452,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes35c196.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes35c191.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0341331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes18c188.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9772125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes32c164.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.834935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes14c160.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No74c143.53$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c132.95$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.524,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes27c132.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed No74c128.8$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.939147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db2…43aabacked No78c128.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.672642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes14c125.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.324,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c119.14$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.172,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes23c118.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.284,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes36c111.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.061936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes31c109.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6516937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes22c109.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes35c104.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c104.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c103$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.832,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1820…2aa0backed Yes35c99.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.997335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes36c98.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.052142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes34c95.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.777331.5%23 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes37c93.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3842148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c91.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.532,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes33c89.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6637942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes29c86.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081f…bf8fbacked No68c81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.31060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No68c73.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1618565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x884a…2bfcbacked No73c69.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.73935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No66c66.85$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.958,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c65.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c64.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.426,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes25c53.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6541033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes33c51.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No66c51.06$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3613845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes38c50.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.063458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5b…5bbbbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+112.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1223951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No65c44.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4564859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No78c44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.682,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9248…6955backed Yes37c43.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166442.2%27 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a68…13f0backed No69c42.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.415549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No66c41.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9743848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked No66c39.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.586451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c38.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No72c38.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No69c37.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.492,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No66c37.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes32c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c31.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.957,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2582268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c30.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.16,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c28.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.92,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c27.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No65c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No63c25.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5115850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No63c24.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2351568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4612…d575backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.729470.2%66 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c18.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.383,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No79c14.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2153855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.