Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2722738ed32568868229f53a586742eb1bac0616c05113341caae782bc47561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 32c | 1,034$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.16 | 191 | 32.5%62 W · 129 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 675$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.92 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 578.84$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 555.42$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.32 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 507.5$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 23c | 431.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.38 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 396.3$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.91 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 309.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 570 | 54.4%310 W · 260 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 271.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 76c | 261.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 257.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 37c | 227.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 217$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 214$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 170$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 169.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 63c | 159.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 152.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 61c | 148.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 139.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 66c | 137.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 136.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 13c | 135.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 134.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 49c | 128.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 118.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 14c | 116.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 111.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 72c | 111.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 110.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 103.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 49c | 103.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 71c | 101.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 235 | 31.1%73 W · 162 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 17c | 99.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 97.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 23c | 96.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 39c | 91.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 37c | 88.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 81.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 76c | 81.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 24c | 80.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 47c | 78.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 57c | 75.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 74.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 45c | 73.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 22c | 72.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 72.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 47c | 69.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 73c | 67.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 446 | 65.5%292 W · 154 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 64.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 24c | 62.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed No | 72c | 61.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 653 | 58.8%384 W · 269 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 59.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 63c | 57.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 35c | 55.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 54.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 36c | 54.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 52.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 47.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…fa5ebacked No | 77c | 46.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 45.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 41.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 41.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 59c | 40.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 440 | 48.6%214 W · 226 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 40c | 37.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 52c | 36.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 48c | 34.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 49c | 33.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 35c | 32.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…5bbbbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.