TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00039047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over41c1,930$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8009045.6%41 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50089153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under58c1,185$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.5847953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over40c1,120$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4481,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Over40c1,063$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.3312850%64 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4102,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under58c600$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2526,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over25c280.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a6…ad64backed Over7c244.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.141040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under69c183.68$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.572,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under53c152.22$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.176,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over35c126.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.195,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under58c81.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.262,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under58c74.08$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.971,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c99…d91abacked Under74c57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8212235.2%43 W · 79 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over43c53.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.961,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Under60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2055953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over42c46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1221944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under58c44.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under58c40.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdb…da6abacked Over41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under57c31.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.432,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Over42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.668942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7701…6ea2backed Under61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.717051.8%88 W · 82 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over40c25.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over41c24.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.148,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Under59c24.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1442241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.