MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72111fe9624691abb0dd5da6575de394570171d875b14c0ebf64ee1a178ea72a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 41c | 1,930$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 58c | 1,185$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.58 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 40c | 1,120$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 40c | 1,063$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.33 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 280.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed Over | 7c | 244.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 69c | 183.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 152.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 126.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 81.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 58c | 74.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 53.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 44.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 58c | 40.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…da6abacked Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 57c | 31.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 40c | 25.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 24.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 59c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.