Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana Grizzlies vs. Portland State Vikings: O/U 143.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x721e9f3254b881856cdf193b2052c99f23973ea76b940d9e82963ef9a3656d67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 53c | 222,829$117,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117,082.51 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 47c | 99,304$46,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,631.29 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 48c | 50,038$24,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,019.76 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,600 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 22,500$10,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,800 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 48c | 5,575$2,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.9 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 4,573$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.85 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,026$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.91 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Under | 48c | 1,836$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.72 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 47c | 565$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 47c | 470$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 415.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.28 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Under | 52c | 326.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.69 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 52c | 288.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 50c | 258.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 175$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 123.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 113$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 49c | 56.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana Grizzlies vs. Portland State Vikings: O/U 143.5this page
- Montana Grizzlies vs. Portland State VikingsMontana Grizzlies won
- Spread: Portland State Vikings (-4.5)Montana Grizzlies won
- Spread: Portland State Vikings (-5.5)Montana Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.