Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7243db7dde36c09e726c7f21302a0741b6c46d5f6ae5cf68b3981e9a55fe95d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 4,024$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.73 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 514$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 441.71$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 72c | 390$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 28c | 390$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 225$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…a5a8backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 54.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Yes | 29c | 49.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 72c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.