Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858062405fbab0e28234d4afff2b785b09d3529b53ee0b6044848e08b8351267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 46c | 25,000$11,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,625 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 12,052$4,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,320.69 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 54c | 10,225$5,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,521.52 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked Yes | 36c | 9,590$3,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…95f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,505$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 56c | 1,406$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.53 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 1,041$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.28 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 71c | 797.19$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 12c | 561.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 33c | 419.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 7c | 333$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 48c | 180.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked No | 69c | 120.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Yes | 57c | 113.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 68c | 94.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…a5a8backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 33c | 74.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…4c76backed No | 46c | 64.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 68c | 42.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.